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Signal!

GLOBEX@ER2U7 804.20 (30m1m)  B804.20 A804.30

This was too perfect picture to not post about – the macd cross at 12:30, the stochastics at 12:35, and that was the sell signal. Lead to 4 pt profit!

Tuesday, September 4, 2007 $(75.44) @ 26 Contracts

Gross:  $        (14.38)
Fees:  $        (61.07)
Net:  $        (75.44)
Contracts: 26
Ratio:  $          (2.90)

Not the best way to kick off September, but given how many contracts I traded, I guess I can be grateful I didn’t lose more. Again my problem is that my average loss is much larger than my average win. This is because of my trading style, and needs to be evaluated. I have been scalping a few ticks each time, and when I brought my stop in to two ticks, I got stopped out very frequently (hence the last hour of my trading were all small losses). I need to mechanize this strategy if it will ever work. I am working now on how to download historical data. It appears I have a bug in my implementation, and will likely have to spend some time going over it. I will keep you posted!

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I made up to $50 today! Then it was all gone in a single bad quick move trade…

GLOBEX@ER2U7 800.00 (30m1m)  B799.90 A800.00

ButtonTrader - [WSP default-1024] ButtonGrid_CONT0003    Future  ER2_Russell2000 eMini_F207-09 on GLOBEX in USD (18)

Credit Card Debt

For the fastest way to save some cash every month – turn over every one of your credit cards, dial the customer support number. Answer all their questions – but follow the online menu to talk to someone. Ask them to lower your interest rate – when they offer you a pidley 10.99% (Prime + 3.99%) ask for the "manager" sometimes refered to as a "specialist" and demand politely request a lower rate, stating that this card is your highest rate, and that you would transfer your balance elsewhere. Press them for their lowest long term rate – then here is the trick. Ask for a promotional short term rate – often 2.99% for six months. We just did this on all of our cards, and two of them offered the short term rate, and one offered a very low balance transfer rate of 1.9%, so I am transferring the balance from one card to another to keep the rates low.

So call your card companies and push down your rates – easiest $150/month I have ever made!

Month of August Review $(1,656.77) @ 802 Contracts

Gross:  $            275.20
Fees:  $      (1,931.97)
Net:  $      (1,656.77)
Contracts: 802
Ratio:  $              (2.07)

So this month there is at least a green square above! I made money before fees this month, which doesn’t mean anything, except that I have improved over my last month.

Total Tradable Days: 23
Total Traded Days: 18
Positive Days: 9
Negative Days: 9
Average Winner:  $   191.36
Average Loser:  $ (375.45)
Biggest Winner:  $   525.60
Biggest Loser:  $ (850.55)

As you can see my average loser was almost twice my average winner, hence the losing money problem. I need to develop a system to cut short losing days, as I always let them grow. My win:loss ratio is exactly 50:50 (9 positive days, 9 negative).

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This chart illustrates the problem, you can see several strings of positive days, but they are all for small amounts. I need to let my profits run and cut my losses short, a lot easier said than done.

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Here we see the problem of fees. The gross sales accumulate very quickly, but I just whipsawed between positive and negative every day. I need to get my winners up, and my losers down.

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This month, the number of contracts correlated with my net profits with a ratio of 0.0067, which is incredibly low, in fact it would be difficult for them to be less correlated. This change is especially prevalent from mid august on, as I stopped placing large orders, and kept my bets generally to single contracts.

Next month, I am going to work on a strategy to at least get my winners to be the same size as my losers.

Month of July Review $(1,935.00) @ 450 Contracts

Gross:  $        (855.00)
Fees:  $     (1,080.00)
Net:  $     (1,935.00)
Contracts: 450

So this post is a month late, but I think it is important to have something to compare myself to before I calculate August’s totals. This was my first month of trading, and as such I did a lot of experimenting. My undoing was that I was trading too many contracts per trade. I was entering with a minimum of two and often three contracts each time. This was my first chance to begin to get a “feel” for the market.

I averaged a daily loss of $85.50 over ten days of trading, trading an average of 45 contracts per day. This will certainly have to turn green before I consider trading real money, but it was a valuable learning experience.

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This chart shows my day by day performance, I was profitable for my last two days, which finally began to dig me out of my hole. These charts are net of fees, next I will show the gross to demonstrate the problem of fees.

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Here we can see that I was on a healthy clip to breaking even for the month. In fact, had I done the exact opposite of every trade I did, I would be positive! Clearly my overtrading skewed this graph in my net, as you can see days with high contract counts were made that much worst.

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Here we can see a light correlation between the number of contracts and the net profit per day,  -0.58732 to be precise. This just emphasizes that I need to be more careful with my bet sizing, as it is costing me heavily.

Next Month I will work heavily on controlling my bet sizing – we will see how I did in my next post.